Only ~50 miles per day, tops. Not far, but there's that cold factor, which batteries don't like.
A co-worker has a '05 Prius he bought new that's his daily (yeah. I feel sorry for him too), and he has a similar routine. After that amount of time with a hybrid, his gut feel is that all-electric would be dicey here in winter. Of course, summer sucks balls too sometimes with 100+ degree days and humidity like the tropics, but at least then there's no danger of freezing to death.
I think the numbers I've seen is that sub zero temps yield about 40% capacity loss. So for a long range dual motor Model 3, you'd be looking at about 180 miles of range. Still not bad, but the heat can sap some miles too. Tesla forums recommend using seat heaters over the forced air as they are more efficient.
